Year in Review 2025 and AI Predictions

For a brief year in review, total views for the two different websites have decreased in the past year. For this blog, I am going to be a few thousand shy of 100,000 views. (2023 I had over 150k views, and 2024 I had over 140k views.) For the Crime De-Coder site, I am going to only get around 15k views.

Part of it is I posted less, this will be the 21st blog post this year on the personal blog (2023 had 46 and 2024 had 32 posts). The Crime De-Coder site had 12 blog posts, so pretty consistent with the prior year. Both are pretty bursty, with large bouts of traffic coming from if I post something to Hacker News I can get 1k to 10k views in a day or two if it makes it to the front page. So the 2024 stats for the crime de-coder was a few of those Hacker News bumps I did not get in 2025.

Some of it could legitimately be traditional Google search being usurped by the gen AI tools. This is the first year I had appreciable referrals from chatgpt, but they are less than 1000. The other tools are trivial amount of referrals. If I worried about SEO more, I would have more updating/regular content (as old pages are devalued quite a bit by google, and it seems to be getting more severe over time).

I have upped my use of the free tools quite a bit. ChatGPT knows me pretty well, and I use Claude Desktop almost every day as well.

An IAM policy scroll is more of a nightmare, and I definitely ask more python questions than R, but the cartoon desk is pretty close to spot on. I am close to paying for Anthropic subscription for Claude code credits (currently use pay as I go via Bedrock, and this is the first month I went over $20).

What pages on the blog are popular I can never be sure of. My most popular post last year was Downloading Police Employment Trends from the FBI Data Explorer. A 2023 post, that had random times where it would have several hundred visits in a short hour span. (Some bot collecting sites? I do not know.) If it is actual people, you would want to check out my Sworn Dashboard site, where you can look at trends for PDs much easier than downloading all the data yourself!

One thing that has grown though, I do short form posting on LinkedIn on my crime de-coder page. Impressions total for the year is over 340k (see the graph), and I currently am a few shy of 4400 followers.

LinkedIn is nice because it can be slightly longer form than the other social media sites. I would suggest you follow me there (in addition to signing up for RSS feeds for the two sites). That is the easiest way to follow my work.

I also took over as a moderator of the Crime Analysis Reddit forum, it is better than the IACA forums in my opinion, so encourage folks to post there for crime analysis questions.

Crime De-Coder Work

Crime De-Coder work has been steady (but not increasing). Similar to last year had several consulting gigs conducting crime analysis for premises liability cases (and one other case I may share my opinions once it is over), and doing some small projects with non-profits and police departments.

One big project was a python training in Austin.

The Python Book (which I also translated to Spanish/French), had a trickle of new sales. 2024 had around 100 sales and 2025 had around 50 sales. It is close to 2/3 print sales and 1/3 epub, so definately folks should have physical prints if you are selling books still.

Doing trainings basically makes writing the book worth it, but I do hope eventually the book makes it way into grad school curriculum’s. (Only one course so far.) I have pitched to grad schools to have me run a similar bootcamp to what I do for crime analysts, so if interested let me know.

The biggest new thing was Crime De-Coder got an Arnold Grant. Working with Denver PD on an experiment to evaluate a chronic offender initiative.

At the Day Gig

At my day gig, I was officially promoted to a senior manager and then quickly to a director position. Hence you get posts like what to show in your tech resume and notes on project management.

One of the reasons I am big on python – it is the dominant programming language in data science. It is hard for me to recruit from my network, as majority of individuals just know a little R (if you were a hard core R person, had packages/well executed public repo’s, I could more easily think you will be able to migrate to python to work on my team).

So learn python if you want to be a data scientist is my advice (and see other job market advice at my archived newsletter).

AI Predictions

At the day gig, my work went from 100% traditional supervised machine learning models to more like 50/50 traditional vs generative AI applications. The genAI hype is real, but I think it is worthwhile putting my thoughts to paper.

The biggest question is will AI take all of our jobs? I think a more likely end scenario is the AI tools just become better at helping humans do tasks. The leap from helping a human do something faster vs an AI tool doing it 100% on its own with 0 human input is hard. The models are getting incrementally better, but I think to fully replace people in a substantive way will require another big advancement in fundamental capabilities. Making a human 10x more productive is easier and still will make the AI companies a ton of money.

Sometimes people view the 10x idea and say that will take jobs, just not 100% of jobs. That is a view though that there is only a finite amount of work to be done. That assumption is clearly not true, and being able to do work faster/cheaper just induces demand for more potential work. The example with calculators making more banking jobs, not less, is basically the same example.

One of the critiques of the current systems is they are overvalued, so we are in a bubble. I do not remember where I read it, but one estimate was if everyone in the US spent $1 a day on the different AI tools, that would justify the current valuations for OpenAI, Anthropic, NVIDIA, etc. I think that is totally doable, we spend a few thousand a workday at Gainwell on the foundation models for example for a few projects, and we are just going to continue to roll out more and more. Gainwell is a company with around 6k employees for reference, and our current AI applications touch way less than 1k of those employees. We have plenty of room to grow those applications.

It is super hard though to build systems to help people do things faster. And we are talking like “this thing that used to take 30 minutes now takes 15 minutes”. If you have 100 people doing that thing all the time though, the costs of the models are low enough it is an easy win.

And this mostly only holds true for knowledge economy work that can be all done via software. There just still needs to be fundamental improvements to robotics to be able to do physical things. The tailor’s job is safe for the foreseeable future.

The change in the data science landscape to more generative AI applications definitely requires social scientists and analysts to up their game though to learn a new set of tools. I do have another book in the works to address that, so hopefully you will see that early next year.

Year in Review 2023: How did CRIME De-Coder do?

In 2023, I published 45 pages on the blog. Cumulative site views were slightly more than last year, a few over 150,000.

I would have had pretty much steady cumulative views from last year (site views took a dip in April, the prior year had quite a bit of growth, I suspect something to do with the way WordPress counts stats changed), but in December my post Forecasts need to have error bars hit front page on Hackernews. This generated about 12k views for that post over two days. (In 2022 I had just shy of 140k views in total.)

It was very high on the front page (#1) for most of that day. So for folks who want to guesstimate the “death by Hackernews” referrals, I would guess if your site/app can handle 10k requests in an hour you will be ok. WordPress by default this is fine (my Crime De-Coder Hostinger site is maybe not so good for that, the SLA is 20k requests per day). Also interesting note, about 10% of people who were referred to the forecast post clicked at least one other page on the site.

So I started CRIME De-Coder in February this year. I have published a few over 30 pages on that site during the year, and have accumulated a total of a few more than 11k site views. This is very similar to the first year of my personal blog, with publishing around 30 posts and getting just over 7k total views for the year. This is almost entirely via direct referrals (I share posts on LinkedIn, google searches are just a trickle).

Sometimes people are like “cool you started your own company”, but really I did that same type of consulting since I was in grad school. I have had a fairly consistent set of consulting work (around $20k per year) for quite awhile. That was people cold asking me for help with mostly statistical analysis.

The reason I started CRIME De-Coder was to be more intentional about it – advertise the work I do, instead of waiting for people to come to me. Doing your own LLC is simple, and it is more a website than anything.

So how much money did I make this year for CRIME De-Coder? Not that much more than $30k (I don’t count the data competitions I won in that metric, but actual commissioned work.) I do have substantially more work lined up for next year though already (more on the order of $50k so far, although no doubt some of that will fall through).

I sent out something like 30 some soft pitches during the year to people in my extended network (first or strong second degree). I don’t know the typical rate of something like that, but mine was abysmal – I was lucky to get an email response no thanks. These are just ideas like “hey I could build you an interactive dashboard with your data” or “you paid this group $150k, I would do that same thing for less than $30k”.

Having CRIME De-Coder did however did increase my first degree network to “ask me for stat analysis” more. So it was definitely worth spending time doing the website and creating the LLC. Don’t ask me for advice though about making pitches for consulting work!

The goal is ultimately to be able to go solo, and just do my consulting work as my full time job. It is hard to see that happening though – even if I had 5 times the amount of work lined up, it would still just be short term single projects. I have pitched more consistent retainers, but no one has gone for that. Small police departments if interested in outsourcing crime analysis let me know – that is I believe the best solution for them. Also have pitched to think tanks to hire me part time as well, as well as CJ programs to hire me in part time roles as well. I understand the CJ programs no interest, I am way more expensive than typical adjunct, I am a good deal for other groups though. (I mean I am good deal for CJ programs as well, part of the value add is supervising students for research, but universities don’t value that very high.)

I will ultimately keep at it – sending email pitches is easy. And I am hoping that as the website gets more organic search referrals, I will be able to break out of my first degree network.

Blogging Year in Review 2021

In total views of the blog for 2021, I will have a trickle of a few more views today, but I will not crack the 100k mark. So the blog viewership has not really grown over the past few years, just variance around 90k views per year.

Most of my traffic is a trickle of referrals for old blog posts from search engines. So my top posts of 2021 would be a quite boring old list if I did that.

I have to go down over 20 posts before ones I posted this year come into the views ranking. Typically I get a one time bump of 100~200 views for a single post when I first post it (I have never topped 600 views in one day). But after that it is just competing for search traffic referrals. (Those posts in 2021 are highlighted by the blue bar on the left in this screengrab.)

In other news, I have not written a blog post about it, but the move to a private sector data science gig was a good one for me (much less stressful than being an academic). Two years in I can safely make that assessment.

But, I have continued to do some academic papers on the side. The Buffalo paper was accepted at Journal of Experimental Crim, and the NIJ paper is under review for the IJOTCC open science special issue. So I can still do some criminology work to scratch that itch on the side.

In Covid times everything is remote, but I do enjoy participating in various groups (even if over zoom). As I posted on the blog, always feel free to send me an email to ask me anything.